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MMA Comments For the Week beginning
September 27, 2004
By Ray Merriman |
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The “Great Libra Ingress” did not coincide with a blow-off to the upside in most world equity markets last week. In fact, several (but not all) of the world equity markets pulled back into this September 22-28 time frame, which is not so unusual for those who study market cycles. Last week was the sixth week following the primary cycle trough of August 13-16 in most indices. As we know from our study of cycles, weeks #5-7 of primary cycles are frequently the time frames in which the first corrective declines of new cycles are completed, which is known as the major cycle trough, or “first phase” of the primary cycle.
But as we look at least week’s markets, we certainly see a mixed bag across the world. In Europe, the German DAX formed its new cycle high last Friday, September 17, at 4000.10. It then sold off all week, with low occurring Friday at 3887.80. The same was basically true with the Netherlands AEX index, which topped out September 17, right on our September 17-20 critical reversal date (give or take 3 trading days), at 335.90. It too proceeded to sell off all week, with the weekly low on Friday at 324.00. But we had divergence on this recent high in both the London FTSE and Swiss Stock market index, which made new cycle highs on Wednesday, September 22, at 4630.70 and 5621.40 respectively. Both then sold off sharply into Friday, down to 4557.20 and 5468.70.
In the Pacific Rim we see a similar disparity, with the Australian All Ordinaries making yet another new all-time high on Wednesday, September 22 at 3656.50, before settling back to 3635.60 for the weekly close. Hong Kong too made a new cycle high on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng posting a reading of 13,357 on Wednesday, and then falling all the way back to 13,035 intraday on Friday. But the picture was different in Japan, where the Nikkei sold off all week. From a high of 11,352 on September 14, it fell down as low as 10,826 on Friday. But here too, like in the U.S.A., a trading cycle trough is due this week.
In America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued falling all week, posting a low of 10,031.20 on Thursday. This was just slightly under the close of the week, which was 10,047.20. However, the decline is well within 40-60% of the move up since August 13, when the market was at 9783 and the high of 10,363 on September 7. The NASDAQ Composite, on the other hand, continued making new cycle highs, up to 1025.40 on Tuesday, September 21. By Friday’s close, however, it was on the weekly lows at 1879.50. And in Argentina, the Merval stock index continued making new monthly highs on Friday as it got to 1113.80 early in the day. But by day’s end, it was back below 1100. This is interesting (to me), because in last week’s speech in Buenos Aires, the audience of traders asked me which day I thought the Merval would top out. And my reply was, “Perhaps next Friday, when the Moon will be in Aquarius.” I had just shown them the study from the FAR software program (Financial Astrology Research), which showed that crests and reversals in the Merval had a high probability of forming when the Moon was in Aquarius while the Sun was in Libra. Friday September 24 was that day. Sometime sit is good to be lucky. Other times it is good to have studies back up your forecasts. The best is when you have both conditions in effect J.
Thus we completed a week where we had a lot of mixed signals. In every part of the world, there were cases of Intermarket bearish divergence, where one index made a new cycle high and another nearby did not. And it happened within three trading days of a critical reversal date. This is a pattern-recognition study that is bearish, and suggests that a cycle of some significance probably just topped out. By how significant? A major cycle (crest of the 4-7 week cycle) was due. But could it have also been the primary cycle crest (crest of the 13-21 week cycle)?
The next couple of weeks will be very important to our understanding of the longer-term outlook. In many of these markets, we know a major cycle trough is due. So the corrective decline into this time frame is not too surprising. But what if the next rally does not take out the highs of the past two weeks? That could set up a very bearish scenario, and one that would not favor the re-election of President George W. Bush. As stated before, the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” cycle indicates that Bush is in trouble, because the low in August was lower than the low between October and May. However, that forecasting tool can be negated if U.S. tock prices can take out the high that formed between those two lows of May and August, which was 10,487 in the DJIA near the time that Venus turned direct. On September 7, the DJIA climbed back to 10,363, which is a little short of the goal. But there is still 6 weeks to go to the election, and there is still another 4 weeks left in the Sun-Mars co junction cycle that tends to correlate with 10% or greater reversals in the DJIA. If the market is going to favor George Bush, then it has to probably hold this 10,000 support area that is being tested now (at least 9900), and start its next push up. Can it do it? Yes. Will it do it? Hmmmmm….
The polls still George Bush ahead, but his lead is beginning to shrink. Some polls show the race is a dead heat again. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows Bush’s lead at 48-45%. As his lead contracts, so does the performance of the U.S. stock market. Maybe the market is on pause, awaiting the release of Friday’s (October 1) Employment numbers. An unexpectedly large jump in employment would give Bush the boost he probably needs to coast into this election. Otherwise, he is going to have to count on people voting from a point of fear, rather than confidence. And as stated last week, “fear sells.” And with Saturn going through Cancer, Americans are likely to vote on fear, not change. So even though technicals are turning bearish, this is election season, and technicals may not be so reliable right now.
The following part of this report contains a lot of editorializing about this election, as seen through the eyes of this independent astrologer. If you don’t like my editorializing, you may wish to end the reading of this week’s report now.
In mundane matters, Libra is the sign of peace and agreements. We postulated that this astrological event of September 22-28 might correspond to agreements between nations and its leaders, and that efforts might be exhibited that show others that the “world is coming together.” President George Bush himself might be in the news in such a way that portrays him not as “war president,” but more so as “statesman for peace.” And what happened last week? Well on Tuesday, President Bush went to the United Nations and “told the U.N. that Iraq and Afghanistan are the world’s fight too.” According to the front page of the Wall Street Journal, “Appealing for greater support… and saying civilized nations must prevail over terrorism, the president <I style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">softened the combative tone used in his General Assembly speech before the Iraq invasion.” What a difference a year makes. What a difference a presidential election campaign makes. What a difference a “Great Libra Ingress” makes in how leaders present themselves before the world!
By the end of the week, Iraqi Premier Allawi came to the United States and addressed Congress, thanking the U.S. for toppling Saddam Hussein (read: “Everything is coming together,” an optimistic mantra of planets in conjunction with Jupiter). But one of those planets is Mars, the god of war, and so not everybody is buying this “best face” production. And certainly not John Kerry, who is ratcheting up the criticism of Bush’s handling of the Iraq crisis, and now claims that “Bush may bring back the draft,” according to the Wall Street Journal. I’ve addressed this topic before, given that transiting Pluto is in opposition to Mars in the chart of the United States, the first time a hard aspect has been present between these two bodies since the Viet Nam War, which also involved a very unpopular draft. And wouldn’t it be ironic (or hypocritical) to see the one man who is alleged to have been a “draft dodger” back then, be the President who brings back the draft, forcing all young men in the country to fight a war that many in the U.S. (and elsewhere) believe is just as immoral as Viet Nam was? I wonder what the punishment will be this time for those who try to “avoid the draft?” And will there be loopholes for those who have strong connections to government to receive preferential treatment that will allow them to NOT go into harm’s way, as there was during the Viet Nam conflict?
Well, that’s a lot of speculation about a hypothetical issue. But it is an issue that our vaunted and professional media need to start asking, because these (and questions about taxes) are things that will affect the voting of many Americans. These questions are more of interest to voters than what one did (or did not do) in Viet Nam 35 years ago, and the Dan Rathers and CBS execs of the world would be well advised to ask these tough questions and demand honest answers, rather than spend their time concocting exposes against President Bush that they cannot prove. As you can no doubt tell, I believe this election – the way it has been run, the issues our press has been overly focused upon, and the choices we are given - is a disaster already for Americans, regardless of who wins. I love America, but as an American, I am saddened (actually, “ashamed” is a more correct feeling) by what we have had to endure for this election, and really, every presidential election since 1984. I yearn for the days when our candidates were individuals who inspired us with hope and confidence, and not distracted us from the important issues with “spin” about themselves and “muck” about their opponent. I want to know: 1) are you going to raise my taxes, 2) how are you going to bring the world back to peace, and 3) are you going to draft my son into harm’s way, for a war that I did not ask for or believe in, at the same time you allow for exemptions to the same for your own sons? I believe the answers to these three questions would determine the vote for most Americans today. Yes, there are others issues of importance, like abortion, jobs for Americans, environment, world trade, social security, etc. But if the candidates could give honest and candid answers to those three questions I posed – if the press would “press” these three issues - I believe there would be very few “undecideds” left in this election. But a responsible and persistent press in America, and one that holds politicians accountable for their visions (instead of their past decisions of 35 years ago), may be no more than a wish and a prayer. Well, it is a wish – an ideal - worth holding onto. Let us hope that the debates that start this week will reveal something of substance about the real intent – the real vision and plans - of these two candidates, who so far have spent way too much time in unproductive attacks against one another’s very distant past. Are you going to tax us? Are you going to resurrect the military draft? Can you make your answer in the form of a promise to the American people? With transiting Pluto square to the USA Neptune for the next year, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a straight answer.
Announcement: This is the last week that you may pre-order next year’s Forecast for 2005 book at a special pre-publication discount price of $34.95. After October 1, the price for next year’s book will become $39.95. As always, this book is written between October and November, and is shipped out upon return from the printer, around December 15. Order now and lock in your reservation for next year’s book! For further information on pre-ordering next year’s book, please go to our website at www.mmacycles.com, and click the banner on the opening page.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) <I style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a <I style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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Ray Merriman,
Financial Astrologer
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Formal education and training includes:
B.S. (Psychology, Michigan State University, 1969),
Post-Graduate studies (Clinical Psychology, Michigan State and University of Michigan, 1969-1971).
Professional (Certified) Life Member of the American Federation of Astrologers (PLMAFA since 1972)
Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA, 1982); Series 3 and 7 exams for Commodities, Financial Futures, Securities and Investments (1986, 1989).
Certified Astrological Practitioner (C.A.P.) through the International Society of Astrological Research (ISAR), Inc.
Currently President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc., an investment advisory firm specializing in market timing products and services.
Editor of The MMA Cycles Report, an advisory newsletter issued 17 times/yr, and used by banks, financial institutions, investors and traders throughout the world since 1982.
1982-1986: Frequent guest contributor on the Financial News Network (FNN).
1986-87: Investment Executive with Prudential Securities
1987-1990: Investment Executive with E.F. Hutton and Shearson Lehman Hutton
1990-1994: Accounts Vice-President of Retail Commodity Futures with Paine Webber Securities.
Professional Astrologer since 1968.
President of ISAR (International Society For Astrological Research - 1995-2001 Recipient of the 1995 UAC Regulus Award for "Enhancing Astrology's Image As A Profession"
Recipient of Aquarius Workshops Award for "Service To Astrology" (1994)
Recipient of Professional Astrologers Inc. (PAI) Award for "Outstanding Activities on Behalf Of Furthering Goals Of Astrology - Lectures."
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1994 Conference on Research, Professionalism and Mundane Forecasting.
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1996 Conference On Computers and Research: The Cutting Edge of Astro-Technology, at Indian Lakes Resort, July 2-7, 1996.
Seminar Coordinator for the ARC "Cosmic Experience", May 20-26, 1997 at Michigan State University
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 2000 conference: Cutting Edge Skills for the 21st Century Professional at the Sheraton Anaheim Hotel, October 4-9, 2000.
Guest lecturer at the 1996 and 2000 World Congress of Astrology in Lucerne, Switzerland.
Guest Lecturer for the FAA (Federation of Australian Astrologers), 1998, 2000, and 2002.
Merriman is an international lecturer on both financial market cycles and various aspects of astrology as it applies to cycles in human activity. He is the author of several books, including:
*The Solar Return Book of Prediction (1977)
*The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations To Gold Price Cycles (1982)
*Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness (1992)
*The Sun, The Moon, and the Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader (1992)
*Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics (1994)
*Basic Principle of Geocosmic Studies For Financial Market Timing (1995)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes (1997)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 2: Geocosmic Correlations To Investment Cycles (1999)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations To Trading Cycles (2001)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals
In conjunction with P.A.S., Merriman has also developed a financial astrological software system: The FAR (Financial Astrological Research) for the Galactic Trader program, which enable traders to identify potential turning points in various stocks and/or financial futures markets. He also the text writer for the "Solar Return Report Writer" by Matrix, Inc., and has written the "Annual Forecasts Book" for MMA since 1976.
www.mmacycles.com
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