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MMA Comments For the Week Beginning
February 19, 2007
By Ray Merriman |
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Review and Preview:
U.S. financial markets are closed Monday, February 19, in observance of “President’s Holiday,” most notably George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, but possibly Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan as well – all Aquarians or early Pisceans.
Once again several U.S. stock indices soared to new all-time or multi-year highs last week, taking out the highs of the previous week (February 7), after giving a technical sell signal at the beginning of our critical reversal zone (February 7-13). After the February 7 high, stocks did sell off again to form what is known as a “major cycle trough” on Monday, February 12. But only two days later, they were back up to new all-time highs.
Due to travel, I do not have all the weekly data on other world stock indices. But I do note that the Japanese Nikkei also soared to a new six-year high last week, as it closed well above a long-term monthly trend line that had been in effect for several years, around 17,600. This confirms that the 7604 low of April 2003 was the even longer-term 9-, 18-, and 54-year cycle troughs. At the time this bottom was happening, our “MMA Japan Cycles” report (and weekly Nikkei report) stated that the Nikkei would soon be giving one of the great buying opportunities of a lifetime.
But it wasn’t just the equity markets that performed well last week. June Gold traded over 680 for the first time in several months, while March Silver rose above 1400. Last year’s highs in each were 745 and 1520, in May 2006. Following that high, Gold had plunged below 570 and Silver below 1000, in June. They tested those levels again as recently as October 2006. Now they are coming back up, consistent with our outlook expressed in the Forecasts for 2007 book.
Corn and Soybeans also rallied strongly last week. March Soybeans rose to a new contract high of 768 on Friday, while March Corn closed at 416, less than 5 cents/bushel off its contract high of 420 made a few weeks ago, and well above the 220 level of last August when this column alerted readers to the prospects of a new bull market about to begin there. That is perhaps the one advantage of living near the motor city: the automobile companies had announced that they would be producing many more ethanol-useable cars by 2008. It also helped to know that the 18-year cycle in Corn had already bottomed, and the next leg up was due. If it stays on track with these studies, I think Corn could still double its previous all-time high (550) by the end of next year.
Short-Term Geocosmics
This impressive bullish streak of no multi-week declines, and no sell-offs of at least 4% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, continues. This phenomenon has it has now been 143 days in which the stock market has not had a 2% decline, the longest such run in nearly 50 years! It is even more now. It isn’t that the astrology signatures are not working. When they occur, the market does reverse, but not too sharply and certainly not too long, as had been the custom for the past five decades (even longer I believe). In other equity markets of the world, and other financial commodity markets, multi-week declines continue to occur, in which prices do fall at least 4%. Only in the U.S. has this phenomenon persisted since last July.
I have received several letters from several financial astrologers who offer up reasons for this rare bullish streak, including the Uranus-Pluto quintile, the applying Jupiter-Saturn trine, Jupiter in Sagittarius, etc. And while all of these signatures do indeed have an overall historical bullish correlation to U.S. stocks, there is still no history that I can find of any of ever coinciding with 30 consecutive weeks of no declines lasting more than 1 week or covering at least 4%. I still believe the explanation lies in the record-breaking revenues and earnings of both individuals and corporations in 2006, and the contribution to retirement programs from those earnings, which I believe will also set new records.
As headlined in Tuesday’s Naples Daily News (that’s where I’ve been vacationing this past week), “RECORD LEVELS OF TAX REVENUES: FEDERAL DEFICIT SHRINLKS SHARPLY.” The first 4 months of the current budget year witnessed record levels of tax collections, up 9.7% from the same period a year ago. Despite what many may fault of President George W. Bush’s tax policies, the fact is that they are shrinking the Federal deficit, and I believe playing a huge roll in this impressive stock market rally. I don’t see it ending until the vast majority of these retirement fund contributions is completed, sometime before April 15, and probably even by mid-March. There is just too much money trying to find a home in the equity markets this season. Some readers have pointed out that past January and Februarys have not always been bullish. But in the past, we haven’t seen such record levels of earnings and corporate income, and hence retirement contributions of this size, either. Ultimately the price of anything depends greatly upon the number of people willing to buy something (demand), versus the number of people willing to sell it at that price. This is a “demand driven” market, and they are the ones that last the longest. The same is true with Corn.
As far as current geocosmics are concerned, Mercury is now in its retrograde motion, February 13-March 8. As stated last week, “This is usually a very unstable technical environment for financial markets, because political announcements and new economic data that are released tend to create conflicting signals to investors. Is it bullish or bearish? One set of announcements is bullish, the next is bearish, and so on. Given that the Sun will also enter Pisces February 19 for one month, probably adds to the confusion of the ordinary investor for the next few weeks.” Our policy is to adopt a very short-term trading approach during this period, taking smaller profits quickly, for markets tend to see-saw back and forth every 1-4 days. They can have a “trend,” but a rather chaotic trend, for awhile.
In addition to Mercury retrograde and the Sun now entering Pisces, we also find Venus forming a waxing square to Pluto on Monday, and Venus ingressing into Aries on February 21. Although the Venus-Pluto square is a Level One type of signature, by itself it is not likely to correspond to the final end of this rally in stocks. A stronger set of geocosmics, known as a “cluster,” is on the horizon for early March – just about the time that I would expect the majority of contributions to “retirement accounts” to be completed.
Long-Term Thoughts
This week’s announcement of the “RECORD LEVELS OF TAX REVENUES: FEDERAL DEFICIT SHRINLKS SHARPLY,” should be considered within the context of the long-term planetary cycles involving Saturn. As discussed previously in this column, as well as in this year’s Forecasts for 2007 book, this is the decade of the rare “Triple Saturn Oppositions,” to Pluto, Neptune, and Uranus (in that order). In the three previous times in U.S. history when this has occurred, the U.S. stock market also made new all-time highs. But in each case, a devastating collapse followed, and the economy sank into either a Depression of prolonged recession.
History has also shown that the majority of the time when Saturn and Pluto are in the waning phase of their 32-27 year cycle, federal deficits of free market economies tend to expand (greater deficits), taxes are increased, interest rates rise, and stock markets stagnate. This waning phase of Saturn-Pluto began in 2001, and doesn’t end until 2020. So far, we have seen interest rates rise, and after September 11, 2001, we also saw the federal deficit balloon higher. But taxes have remained low, and the deficit is starting to shrink in response, which is a positive. Also in response, stock markets have also soared to record levels. Although this is not the way the Saturn-Pluto waning phase usually manifests, it is consistent with the fact that both the Saturn-Neptune and Saturn-Uranus cycles are still peaking (moving towards their opposition). Saturn-Neptune is peaking this year.
In fact the second of its three passages will take place February 28. The third and final passage will unfold in late June. And the final of the “Triple Saturn Oppositions” will occur when Saturn and Uranus undergo their five passage series from November 2008 through July 2010. After that, all three of these Saturn planetary-pair cycles will be in their “down” phases through 2020. Do you think politicians can refrain from increasing taxes, and deficit spending, as we enter the next decade? Can they even refrain from the temptation before we end this decade? And more importantly, what can you do financially protect yourself when these conditions kick in, for the stock market may not be the “safe haven” your broker has conditioned you to believe – unless you are fortunate enough to find one of those rare brokers who thinks for himself, and isn’t afraid to contradict the Wall Street herd. They are out there.
Announcements:
There are still a few copies left of the Forecasts for 2007 Book, both in English and German. For information on ordering before they go out of print (which they have done three of the previous five years), please go to www.mmacycles.com. Go to “Ordering” or “Books.” By the way, we are in the process of creating a new website for MMA. Hopefully it will be completed by April. Soon you will also be to study Financial Astrology on-line with Raymond Merriman.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to subscribe to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services.htm, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book: Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out! This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for…many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” – those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering this book, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/ordmmabook.shtml.
My next conference appearance will be at “The Blast,” an astrology conference in Sedona, Arizona, taking place March 28-April 2. This conference will feature many of the newest “young” astrologers, along with a couple of “young elders” like Rob Hand, Dennis Harness, Gloria Star, Robert Blaschke and myself. Coordinated by Moses Siregar, this conference will also be the site for the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) annual meeting, of which I have serve as President since 2002. The public is welcomed to attend, and meet the wonderful people who direct this organization. For more information on this unique and very affordable seminar, please go to http://theblastastrologyconference.com
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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Ray Merriman,
Financial Astrologer
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Formal education and training includes:
B.S. (Psychology, Michigan State University, 1969),
Post-Graduate studies (Clinical Psychology, Michigan State and University of Michigan, 1969-1971).
Professional (Certified) Life Member of the American Federation of Astrologers (PLMAFA since 1972)
Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA, 1982); Series 3 and 7 exams for Commodities, Financial Futures, Securities and Investments (1986, 1989).
Certified Astrological Practitioner (C.A.P.) through the International Society of Astrological Research (ISAR), Inc.
Currently President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc., an investment advisory firm specializing in market timing products and services.
Editor of The MMA Cycles Report, an advisory newsletter issued 17 times/yr, and used by banks, financial institutions, investors and traders throughout the world since 1982.
1982-1986: Frequent guest contributor on the Financial News Network (FNN).
1986-87: Investment Executive with Prudential Securities
1987-1990: Investment Executive with E.F. Hutton and Shearson Lehman Hutton
1990-1994: Accounts Vice-President of Retail Commodity Futures with Paine Webber Securities.
Professional Astrologer since 1968.
President of ISAR (International Society For Astrological Research - 1995-2001 Recipient of the 1995 UAC Regulus Award for "Enhancing Astrology's Image As A Profession"
Recipient of Aquarius Workshops Award for "Service To Astrology" (1994)
Recipient of Professional Astrologers Inc. (PAI) Award for "Outstanding Activities on Behalf Of Furthering Goals Of Astrology - Lectures."
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1994 Conference on Research, Professionalism and Mundane Forecasting.
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1996 Conference On Computers and Research: The Cutting Edge of Astro-Technology, at Indian Lakes Resort, July 2-7, 1996.
Seminar Coordinator for the ARC "Cosmic Experience", May 20-26, 1997 at Michigan State University
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 2000 conference: Cutting Edge Skills for the 21st Century Professional at the Sheraton Anaheim Hotel, October 4-9, 2000.
Guest lecturer at the 1996 and 2000 World Congress of Astrology in Lucerne, Switzerland.
Guest Lecturer for the FAA (Federation of Australian Astrologers), 1998, 2000, and 2002.
Merriman is an international lecturer on both financial market cycles and various aspects of astrology as it applies to cycles in human activity. He is the author of several books, including:
*The Solar Return Book of Prediction (1977)
*The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations To Gold Price Cycles (1982)
*Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness (1992)
*The Sun, The Moon, and the Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader (1992)
*Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics (1994)
*Basic Principle of Geocosmic Studies For Financial Market Timing (1995)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes (1997)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 2: Geocosmic Correlations To Investment Cycles (1999)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations To Trading Cycles (2001)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals
In conjunction with P.A.S., Merriman has also developed a financial astrological software system: The FAR (Financial Astrological Research) for the Galactic Trader program, which enable traders to identify potential turning points in various stocks and/or financial futures markets. He also the text writer for the "Solar Return Report Writer" by Matrix, Inc., and has written the "Annual Forecasts Book" for MMA since 1976.
www.mmacycles.com
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