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MMA Comments For the Week Beginning
January 29, 2007
By Ray Merriman |
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Review and Preview:
This was a most interesting week, as the first of three Jupiter-Uranus squares for the year unfolded on Monday, January 22. Several of the world’s equity markets made new multi-year or all-time highs, but under weaker technical signs than at previous highs. Most closed weakly by Friday, setting up a tug-of-war for the next week, and maybe the weeks following. As readers of this column know (and are probably getting tired of reading), the U.S. stock market is in the very late stages of its 4-year cycle, when normally a 20+% decline happens (85.7% probability since 1893). Technically, last week looks like another optimal set up for this decline to begin. But fundamentally, this is not the expected season for a major decline to begin, because so much new money typically comes into funds now in the form of retirement accounts. For tax purposes these funds are received in the first quarter of every year, and it one of the best tax deferments available to Americans. So those monies tend to end up in equities, driving stock prices higher around this time every year now. But then, with Jupiter square Uranus, the usual rules may not work, for with Uranus, anything goes. And when it goes, it usually goes hard, in dramatic fashion, and completely by surprise… sort of like what happened on Wednesday, January 22, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a new all-time high. But then the very next day, it gave it all back. As the DJIA made a new high, the NASDAQ Composite failed to even exceed its 2508 high of January 16, which still stands as the reversal date right in the center of our prior critical reversal zone.
In Europe, the Swiss Stock index soared to yet another new all-time, reaching 9200 on Thursday. By Friday it had fallen to 9041. Both the Netherlands AEX and German DAX indices also made new multi-year highs last week, with the DAX hitting 6771 on January 25 and the AEX up to 509 on January 22. Even the London FTSE popped up to a new multi-year high with its mark of 6335 on Thursday. But by Friday, all these indices were down considerably, flashing string technical sell signals.
In the Pacific Rim, the All Ordinaries Index of Australia soared to another new all-time on Friday, reaching 5782. The Japanese Nikkei also soared to its highest level since July 2000 on Thursday at 17,617. As stated last week, “This is important resistance, because of a long-term monthly trend line that shows much resistance at 17,300-17,600. If it can close above that trend line area, it could commence a very explosive upside breakout.” But it didn’t. It closed at 17,422, still within striking range, but no cigar just yet. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong also made a new all-time high last Wednesday at 20,972. But then it fell hard, even forming what is known as a “bearish island reversal” pattern, closing the week at 20,281.
In other markets, Crude Oil rebounded smartly as cold weather finally arrived for the Winter. Plus, it appears OPEC nations may be serious about cutting back supplies, which could start that move to 100.00/barrel we still forecast. But we have to get above 60.00 first, which is major resistance. Both Gold and Silver reached critical plateaus last week, with Gold getting a little above 650 and Silver up to 1360. But then both pulled back. If they close above those marks next week, it may be off to races. The same is true if the Nikkei can close above last week’s high.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The Sun is now in Aquarius (January 20-February 20). This is typically a period when financial markets are given to sudden surprises. After all, Uranus is the ruler of Aquarius (modern astrology). It is not unusual, for instance, to wake up one or two days during this one-month passage and find Silver down 50 cents or Gold off $15.00, with very little warning the day before. It is also not unusual to find the stock market up sharply one day, then down sharply the next, or vice-versa. If Uranus and Aquarius are anything, it is not smooth and orderly. To the contrary, their principles are volatile, unexpected, and full of surprises. But knowing this, we should not be so surprised when the market acts so chaotic. Also we should realize that it is hard to keep the stock market down at this time of year because so much money flows into retirement accounts, to defer tax liabilities until future years.
The only interesting geocosmic currently unfolding are ingresses of Geocentric Venus moves into Pisces, while heliocentric (as seen from Sun) Venus and Mercury both move into Aries between January 26-28. As discussed last week, “This combination usually has relevance to reversals in some currency prices, like the Yen to the Dollar or Euro.” They have been declining. Mars continues through Capricorn until February 26, which coincides with big price swings in Crude Oil and greater problems for Israel, as forecasted a couple of weeks ago. This country is very much in the news as of late with the allegations of rape and sexual harassment against their President, and demands for his removal. The next big set up in the heavens occurs February 7-13.
Long-Term Thoughts
“The Iraqi Conflict is nothing like Viet Nam.”
How often have we heard this assessment in the past three years? To an astrologer, the similarities of celestial patterns today are remarkably similar to those present during the days of the Viet Nam War. To anyone who lived in the United States during that time, there are many parallels too – especially the increasing public and political dismay for the Commander in Chief. The more Mr. Bush tries to do, the more vocal his detractors become, and the more empowered the protest movement becomes. A Cox News Service story this week headlines, “Protestors to Rally Saturday.” The news report begins, “Activists planning an antiwar protest rally on Saturday said Wednesday it’s aimed at convincing Congress to get the troops out of Iraq.” If you substituted Viet Nam for Iraq, that same story line could pertain to a time 40 years ago. “Antiwar protest rally?” “Trying to convince the government to get the troops out of….”? This is becoming 1967-68 all over again, with real fears of the same results against a guerilla–like military opponent to which conventional rules of warfare don’t apply.
In the mid-1960’s, Saturn was in opposition to Uranus and Pluto, and the later transited over the USA Neptune (22 Virgo), forming a T-square to the USA Mars (20 Gemini). In 2001-2003, Pluto again transited in hard aspect to the USA Mars (opposition) and Neptune (square), and both the 9-11 attack and the commencement of the War against Terrorism took place. And in 2008-2009, Saturn and Uranus will once again be in opposition, and form a T-square to the natal USA Mars-Neptune square. Does that sound like the War against Terrorism is going to wind down? Does that sound like a period where the actions of the Commander in Chief are going to suddenly elicit greater support from both politicians and the general populace? Does it sound like a successful result – a victory with dignity – for the United States and its Commander in Chief? No. With Neptune involved, the possibility of increasing chaos and an expansion of the war onto surrounding areas by 2008 seems more likely than a satisfying resolution to this quagmire. And with Uranus and Neptune in mutual reception, it seems more likely that the antiwar protestors will be growing in numbers, and thus become even more emboldened as we head into the 2008 elections (which might erupt with outrage and violence like the Democratic Convention did in Chicago in 1968).
It’s the same ingredients that led to the dynamic intellectual, cultural, and social activism of the 1960’s. This climate isn’t any different than the Viet Nam War days. The only difference is that the result doesn’t have to be the same. But for that to happen, the leadership has to learn from the past, and act in a different manner than “LBJ all the Way” did in the mid-1960’s. But you know, those politicians from Texas who become Presidents… they’ve got big cajoles, and they tend to become deaf (or stubborn) when the volume gets too loud. And Saturn moving into opposition to Uranus, at the same time as Pluto moves into Capricorn (2008), is likely to turn both the “volume” and the “heat” up on the President. Let’s see… in 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 1000 for the first time ever. It lasted three weeks, not to see those levels again for 7 years.
Announcements:
The “SOS Stock Market Cycles Report” and will come out this week, January 29 and 30. These reports come out every 6-8 weeks to subscribers of these reports. This report is in two parts. The first report – “SOS Stock Market Cycles” – focuses purely upon the long-term cycles in the U.S. stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, followed by discussions on both intermediate and short-term cycles. It is the “big picture” ahead. The second part is the “SOS Global Stock Markets Report.” This covers the German DAX, London FTSE, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. For ordering information, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services.htm.
The Forecast for 2007 CD is now available! This 2-set CD was created from the speech given January 6, 2007 in Birmingham, Michigan. It is about 2.5 hours long, and covers both the long-term political and cultural cycles we are currently in, as well as those that pertain specifically to 2007. Special areas of discussion include the Crude Oil and the coming energy transformation, the long and short-term economic cycles, the USA and its President, and of course, financial market cycles of stocks, interest rates, housing, and precious metals. The cost is $45.00 plus postage for the CD set. To order, please write to ordersmma@msn.com, or go to http://www.mmacycles.com/ordmmatape.shtml, or call us at 1-800-662-3349, or 248-626-3034.
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book: Secrets of a Silver Trader, is printed and we are just waiting for delivery as this is being written (Friday). They will be mailed out to those who have already ordered just as soon as they arrive (maybe today, a maybe Monday)! This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for…many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” – those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering this book, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/ordmmabook.shtml.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services.htm, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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Ray Merriman,
Financial Astrologer
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Formal education and training includes:
B.S. (Psychology, Michigan State University, 1969),
Post-Graduate studies (Clinical Psychology, Michigan State and University of Michigan, 1969-1971).
Professional (Certified) Life Member of the American Federation of Astrologers (PLMAFA since 1972)
Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA, 1982); Series 3 and 7 exams for Commodities, Financial Futures, Securities and Investments (1986, 1989).
Certified Astrological Practitioner (C.A.P.) through the International Society of Astrological Research (ISAR), Inc.
Currently President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc., an investment advisory firm specializing in market timing products and services.
Editor of The MMA Cycles Report, an advisory newsletter issued 17 times/yr, and used by banks, financial institutions, investors and traders throughout the world since 1982.
1982-1986: Frequent guest contributor on the Financial News Network (FNN).
1986-87: Investment Executive with Prudential Securities
1987-1990: Investment Executive with E.F. Hutton and Shearson Lehman Hutton
1990-1994: Accounts Vice-President of Retail Commodity Futures with Paine Webber Securities.
Professional Astrologer since 1968.
President of ISAR (International Society For Astrological Research - 1995-2001 Recipient of the 1995 UAC Regulus Award for "Enhancing Astrology's Image As A Profession"
Recipient of Aquarius Workshops Award for "Service To Astrology" (1994)
Recipient of Professional Astrologers Inc. (PAI) Award for "Outstanding Activities on Behalf Of Furthering Goals Of Astrology - Lectures."
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1994 Conference on Research, Professionalism and Mundane Forecasting.
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1996 Conference On Computers and Research: The Cutting Edge of Astro-Technology, at Indian Lakes Resort, July 2-7, 1996.
Seminar Coordinator for the ARC "Cosmic Experience", May 20-26, 1997 at Michigan State University
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 2000 conference: Cutting Edge Skills for the 21st Century Professional at the Sheraton Anaheim Hotel, October 4-9, 2000.
Guest lecturer at the 1996 and 2000 World Congress of Astrology in Lucerne, Switzerland.
Guest Lecturer for the FAA (Federation of Australian Astrologers), 1998, 2000, and 2002.
Merriman is an international lecturer on both financial market cycles and various aspects of astrology as it applies to cycles in human activity. He is the author of several books, including:
*The Solar Return Book of Prediction (1977)
*The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations To Gold Price Cycles (1982)
*Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness (1992)
*The Sun, The Moon, and the Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader (1992)
*Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics (1994)
*Basic Principle of Geocosmic Studies For Financial Market Timing (1995)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes (1997)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 2: Geocosmic Correlations To Investment Cycles (1999)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations To Trading Cycles (2001)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals
In conjunction with P.A.S., Merriman has also developed a financial astrological software system: The FAR (Financial Astrological Research) for the Galactic Trader program, which enable traders to identify potential turning points in various stocks and/or financial futures markets. He also the text writer for the "Solar Return Report Writer" by Matrix, Inc., and has written the "Annual Forecasts Book" for MMA since 1976.
www.mmacycles.com
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