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MMA Comments
For the Week Beginning
April 28, 2008
By Ray Merriman |
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Review and Preview:
The majority of world stock markets were up again last week as we completed the first of three back-to-back critical reversal zones that extends through May 26. Many of these indices came down into the midpoint of this first reversal zone, which was on April 22, and then rallied into the end of the week. In many cases, this rally took the indices to their highest levels since the lows of January 22 or March 17.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, all four markets we track soared to their highest levels since March 17. Both the Japanese Nikkei and India’s NIFTY rallied all week, topping out at 13,886 and 5117 respectively on Friday. This represents gains of 18.7 and 14.5% respectively in the past month. The All Ordinaries of Australia topped out on Wednesday at 5712, up 11.3% from its 5130 low on March 17. But the stellar performer was the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, which soared 25.7% from a low of 20,572 on March 18 to a high of 25,861 last Thursday.
In Europe, the pattern was similar, but not so strong. Two of the four indices we track made new cycles highs on Friday. The London FTSE index soared to 6098 on Friday, a gain of almost 9% in the past month. The German DAX was the strongest, gapping up on Friday to 6945 for a gain of 12.6% since the 6167 low of March 17. But neither the Netherlands AEX nor the Swiss Stock Index (SSI) were able to make new monthly highs on the last week’s rally, thus creating a possible case of intermarket bearish divergence in this reversal zone.
The U.S. stock markets performed well too. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite both made new cycle highs on Thursday. In the case of the DJIA, the 12,942 high on Thursday represents an 11.24% gain from the lows of January 22. The 2447 high in the NASDAQ Composite is a 13.5% appreciation since its primary cycle low of March 17.
But the greatest example of this part week’s reversal signature was noted in the currency market, especially the euro currency against the U.S. Dollar. On April 22, our exact reversal date, the euro currency topped out with yet another new all-time high at 1.6018. By Friday, it was in the mid-150’s. This may be the start of something big over the next month or so. In other markets, Crude Oil also made a new all-time on April 22 as it touched 119.90. It didn’t sell off much, however, but our time band remains in effect for the all-time high to be completed anytime before the end of May. Gold and Silver both sold off last week to their lowest level since April 1, with the appearance of falling lower as we approach the time band for Gold’s 11.33-month cycle trough, due before the end of July.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The only thing traders need to know about this coming week is that Saturn turns stationary direct on Friday, May 2 the day the Employment reports come out. It will mark the end of the second reversal zone of this period that extends to May 26. Saturn direct is a Level 1 signature (highest correlation to primary type of cycles), with a 70% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 9 trading days. But in this case, we are not in the time band for a primary cycle at least not a primary cycle trough. We are in a time band for a major (5-8 week) cycle trough.
The most important thing to recognize about major Saturn signatures is this: any financial market that is declining into a period of one day before through one day afterwards, has a high potential of completing that decline and starting a rally. The fact that Saturn direct happens on the Employment reports day may mean the news is very gloomy (but we already expect it to be gloomy, so maybe it is more than gloomy like maybe it is frightening). In this case, if the world stock markets (or any other markets) decline into May 1 +/- one trading day, then the rally that follows could be quite substantial, because the next geocosmic signatures are Jupiter turning retrograde on May 9, followed by the Sun-Jupiter trine of May 12. Just as Saturn correlates with the end of declines, Jupiter signatures can correlate with the end of rallies. They don’t always behave this way, but when they do, an ideal set up presents itself for trading. And of course we will monitor this development closely and give our formal recommendations for various markets that unfold in this “ideal set up” formation - in our daily reports.
Longer-Term Thoughts:
“Fear Sells.” It’s a mantra that I have written about for the past 7 years that would dominate public consciousness throughout this decade, and into the next. It is the mantra politicians will exhort more and more in their quest to get voters to vote against their opponent (and for them). It is the mantra of negativity that doesn’t really win elections, but rather defeats the other side by placing doubts into voter’s minds about the electability - or the ability to govern fairly in regards to the needs of all the people - by the opponent. In the study of astrology, the concept of “fear” is ruled by Saturn. And for only the fourth time in the past 200 years, Saturn is forming an opposition to all three of the planets outside of its orbit within only ten years. In the present decade, Saturn started this “triple opposition” period with its 32-37 year opposition to Pluto in 2001-2002. That is when the “fear sells’ mantra of modern-day politicians began. Or, at least it notched it up to an entirely new level. The second phase happened in 2006-2007, when Saturn entered its 36-year opposition cycle to Neptune. That was also the time of massive fraud and deception in business and politics which would take 1-3 years to be revealed. Those fraudulent and deceptive practices are just now coming out in to open. And the last Saturn opposition is the 45-year cycle to Uranus, which occurs 5 times between November 4, 2008 and July 26, 2010. Not only does “fear sell,” but also “fear defeats,” which means the person who instills the most “fear” usually ends up the victor when a vote is needed to decide the outcome in a election between two (or more) people. At least it is that way for most of this current “Triple Saturn opposition” period (2001-2010, or even longer).
I bring this up because we in the beginning stages of one of the most heated presidential races in the history of the United States. And the first passage if the Saturn-Uranus opposition November 4, 2008 is on the day of that Presidential Election. On Friday, April 25, the “What’s news” section on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, posted two pertinent snippets. The first stated that “The U.S. said it found Iranian arms caches in Iraq…. The charges mark a hardening of U.S. rhetoric on Iran, which it now calls the greatest long-term threat to Iraq.” Does it sound like the trumpet roll to… “Fear Sells,” as we approach the campaign season?
The second article states, “U.S. Intelligence officials said there had been at least a decade of cooperation between North Korea and Syria to build a nuclear reactor.” This came out on the day that the Bush Administration released photos of a nuclear reactor in Syria that Israel destroyed last September 2007. According to these intelligence reports, the facility was built with the aid and cooperation of North Korea. In other words, the United States is in grave danger still - from not only Iran, but also Syria and North Korea. But why release these photos and this intelligence report now, almost eight month after the fact? Why harden the rhetoric now with Iran, after the so-called “troop surge” was just reported as being successful? Isn’t violence down in Iraq since the White House approved the troop surge a year ago? Well, yes, but…. “Fear Sells.” And we have an election coming up. And if the polls don’t show a certain political party in the lead as the election gets closer and closers, then… well, wouldn’t current political leaders need a reason to start something that may really drive home the point that you really do need a president who can keep you safe? One who can protect you against your “Fears?”
So let the posturing commence, and along with it, a lot of “new intelligence” suggesting the imminent danger Americans are in (as if we forgot). And if that doesn’t work, let’s look at the “fears” about the economy. After all, Friday’s Consumer Confidence numbers were at the lowest level in 26 years. That would mean 1982 the year that ended a rather harsh recession (and under a Saturn-Pluto conjunction). Yes, people are afraid about the future of the economy. And yes, at recession bottoms, confidence is always at its lowest point in the cycle. These are the two big “fears” to be drilled into us in the coming months: the fear of war and the consequent loss of our freedom, and the fear of an economic collapse wiping out our financial security, probably exasperated by higher taxes. Friday’s Wall Street Journal also had an editorial about the economy, pointing out that the U.S. Corporate tax rate is currently the second highest in the world after Japan, and that is what is “… driving investment and jobs overseas.”
Why is it that major elections and leaders of political parties seem to no longer inspire confidence and hope? Maybe, just maybe, with Saturn in opposition to Uranus, one candidate can emerge who will break this depressing pattern of 21st century America. After all, Saturn represents patterns, and Uranus represents change and the breaking of old ways. Saturn also represents the old guard, and Uranus represents youth. This election will likely be about those two opposite ends of the spectrum. There should be a real clear distinction between the candidates this time - about as clear as black and white, young and old, and maybe hope and fear.
That certainly fits with Saturn being emphasized, especially with the Moon in Capricorn on Election Day. But Saturn is transiting through Virgo all year, and he is a Virgo. What can happen to someone who runs a grueling campaign, with Saturn on his Sun? It depends on his health and vitality of course, but Saturn on anyone’s Sun, let alone one who is already past 70 years of age, is not a time when one is advised to “push the limits” of what might be needed to conduct a successful campaign. I realize that some astrologers are reading this as a time when one takes on more responsibility in his/her life, and therefore he is the candidate to win because of this very condition of Saturn on his Sun. Perhaps. But he also has his natal Saturn at 20 Pisces, right where Uranus is passing back and forth all this year. And that natal Saturn is opposite his Venus-Neptune conjunct, with Venus ruling the probable ascendant (Libra).
Transiting Saturn is there too, on his natal Venus-Neptune, opposite his natal Saturn). So this Saturn-Uranus opposition that is transiting in the heavens denotes sudden and unexpected changes along the way towards this election, towards the assumption of this office by next year. And it falls on very critical points to Senator McCain’s chart. Can he win on the basis of Astrology? Yes, of course he can. In fact, on the basis of astrology alone, I would say he has the advantage. The Moon Jupiter conjunction on Election Day implies the country does not want to make a change, and that they do want someone in the office who has experience and represents the idea of “safety to the nation.” It favors the older man, the one with more experience, in my way of looking at things.
But it could also be interpreted to favor Senators Clinton and Obama too, because they represent Uranus especially Obama (youth). If the youth come out in large numbers, they could produce the classical theme of “change” (or upset) that goes with Uranus in opposition to Saturn. Or something else can happen along the way that derails the whole process, prior to January 20, when the new president is sworn in. And if that happens, you can be certain it would open up a whole new realm of conspiracy theories, especially if it means the current Administration has to stay in office beyond that date, which - after all isn’t that what many conspiratorial theorists are suggesting anyway? It could happen, and it may not be the result of a dark conspiracy. Or, maybe it is. In any event, this signature promises one thing for certain: nothing is certain. Anything can happen with this election, and even right afterwards.
Announcements:
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
Many readers may also be interested to know that the largest gathering of Financial Astrologers in many years will be taking place May 15-20, 2008, in Denver, Colorado. In fact, the largest gathering of astrologers since 1974 will be taking place then. The United Astrological Conference (UAC) will convene for the first time since 2002, and approximately 1500 professionals and students of astrology will be present from all around the world. Whether you are a professional or student or novice, you will find one of the 15 tracks being offered to be of great interest. They even have a beginning track based on sun sign astrology for those who know very little about how astrology really works. In all, there will be 160 speakers from over 30 different countries. For more information on this conference, go to www.uacastrology.com. For more information on the Financial Astrology track (18 different presentations), go to http://www.uacastrology.com/cgi-bin/tracks.cgi?CODE=12. At the present time, all rooms at the Sheraton Adams Mark have been sold out, but on the UAC web site is a list of other hotels within walking distance.
The German version of “Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics” is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at www.mma-europe.de.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening.
In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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Ray Merriman,
Financial Astrologer
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Formal education and training includes:
B.S. (Psychology, Michigan State University, 1969),
Post-Graduate studies (Clinical Psychology, Michigan State and University of Michigan, 1969-1971).
Professional (Certified) Life Member of the American Federation of Astrologers (PLMAFA since 1972)
Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA, 1982); Series 3 and 7 exams for Commodities, Financial Futures, Securities and Investments (1986, 1989).
Certified Astrological Practitioner (C.A.P.) through the International Society of Astrological Research (ISAR), Inc.
Currently President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc., an investment advisory firm specializing in market timing products and services.
Editor of The MMA Cycles Report, an advisory newsletter issued 17 times/yr, and used by banks, financial institutions, investors and traders throughout the world since 1982.
1982-1986: Frequent guest contributor on the Financial News Network (FNN).
1986-87: Investment Executive with Prudential Securities
1987-1990: Investment Executive with E.F. Hutton and Shearson Lehman Hutton
1990-1994: Accounts Vice-President of Retail Commodity Futures with Paine Webber Securities.
Professional Astrologer since 1968.
President of ISAR (International Society For Astrological Research - 1995-2001 Recipient of the 1995 UAC Regulus Award for "Enhancing Astrology's Image As A Profession"
Recipient of Aquarius Workshops Award for "Service To Astrology" (1994)
Recipient of Professional Astrologers Inc. (PAI) Award for "Outstanding Activities on Behalf Of Furthering Goals Of Astrology - Lectures."
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1994 Conference on Research, Professionalism and Mundane Forecasting.
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 1996 Conference On Computers and Research: The Cutting Edge of Astro-Technology, at Indian Lakes Resort, July 2-7, 1996.
Seminar Coordinator for the ARC "Cosmic Experience", May 20-26, 1997 at Michigan State University
Seminar Coordinator for the ISAR 2000 conference: Cutting Edge Skills for the 21st Century Professional at the Sheraton Anaheim Hotel, October 4-9, 2000.
Guest lecturer at the 1996 and 2000 World Congress of Astrology in Lucerne, Switzerland.
Guest Lecturer for the FAA (Federation of Australian Astrologers), 1998, 2000, and 2002.
Merriman is an international lecturer on both financial market cycles and various aspects of astrology as it applies to cycles in human activity. He is the author of several books, including:
*The Solar Return Book of Prediction (1977)
*The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations To Gold Price Cycles (1982)
*Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness (1992)
*The Sun, The Moon, and the Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader (1992)
*Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics (1994)
*Basic Principle of Geocosmic Studies For Financial Market Timing (1995)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes (1997)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 2: Geocosmic Correlations To Investment Cycles (1999)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations To Trading Cycles (2001)
*The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals
In conjunction with P.A.S., Merriman has also developed a financial astrological software system: The FAR (Financial Astrological Research) for the Galactic Trader program, which enable traders to identify potential turning points in various stocks and/or financial futures markets. He also the text writer for the "Solar Return Report Writer" by Matrix, Inc., and has written the "Annual Forecasts Book" for MMA since 1976.
www.mmacycles.com
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